Introduction

Modern slavery is a crime that thrives in the shadows. Because it is hidden, data on its prevalence is often sparse, noisy, and incomplete. This project, led by Dr. Rowland Seymour at the University of Birmingham, leverages cutting-edge computational statistics to transform fragmented data into robust, actionable intelligence.

Funded by a £1.5 million UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship, our team is developing novel statistical methodologies to estimate the true scale of modern slavery and describe the uncertainty surrounding these figures. By moving beyond simple counting to complex modelling, we aim to set a new benchmark for quantitative research in human rights, directly supporting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

Watch the Overview

Our Scientific Objectives

We are pioneering statistical frameworks across three critical frontiers:

• National Prevalence Mapping: We are creating new methods to produce granular prevalence estimates across different UK regions and exploitation types, updating national figures that have not been revised since 2015.
• High-Resolution Spatial Analysis: We are developing neighbourhood-level models to identify local "hotspots" of exploitation, with a specific focus on forced and early marriage. This allows for targeted interventions at the ward level where they are needed most.
• Digital Footprint Detection: We are building tools to analyse online data—from financial transactions to internet service provider logs—to identify and disrupt online child sexual exploitation.

Impact-Driven Research

Our goal is not just theoretical advancement, but practical application. By quantifying the invisible, we empower policymakers, law enforcement, and NGOs with the evidence needed to design better safeguarding strategies and ultimately save lives.